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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending together. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still